Job Probabilities

June 7, 2026

How do you get a job?

You don’t need to land an offer for every single job you apply to. You need to get just one. The moment you have your first success, you can stop interviewing.

P(\text{zero offers}) = (1-p)^n

What is the probability you get at least one offer after $n$ applications?

P(\text{at least one offer}) = 1-(1-p)^n

So, there are two ways you can increase your chances:

Make $p$ go up: become a more qualified candidate, apply for roles that match your experience etc
Make $n$ go up: apply and interview at more places

You can play with the parameters yourself:

applications (n = 60) success rate (p = 5%)

What does this tell us?

$p$ is more tune-able, and should be the bulk of your effort. You can become much more qualified by learning fundamentals, doing practice interviews, and aligning your profile with the ideal candidate’s.

But $n$ is also a variable! And pretty simple to keep investing in. So don’t give up. Keep applying.

Caveating that we made some simplifying assumptions:

That each application is independent, and doesn’t affect future outcomes
That each job is equally attainable